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荷蘭合作銀行:疾病、貿易問題改變了全球生豬市場

  • 來源:Pig Progress
  • 日期:2019-08-15
  • 編輯:admin
  • 評論:0

Rising disease pressures are challenging the global market, specifically African Swine Fever (ASF) which continues to negatively affect production in Asian countries and adds uncertainty to trade and production prospects in other parts of the world. This was one of the key messages from Rabobank’s RaboResearch quarterly report.

 

不斷增加的疾病疫情,特別是非洲豬瘟(ASF),正在挑戰全球市場,目前仍然對亞洲國家的生産造成負面影響,並給世界其他地區的貿易和生産前景增加了不確定性。這是荷蘭合作銀行RaboResearch季度報告的關鍵信息之一。

 

ASF continues to threaten the global pork market, the Rabobank quarterly reportstated, and while China’s pork prices begin to rise, production responses in the rest of the world appear cautious. Other factors, including disease management and the weather, are hindering production in Europe and Brazil. The resumption of Sino-US trade negotiations is a positive development, implying a chance for China to review tariffs on US pork imports.

 

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)季度報告稱,非洲豬瘟繼續威脅著全球豬肉市場,盡管中國豬肉價格開始上漲,但世界其它地區的生産反應似乎較爲謹慎。包括疾病管理和天氣在內的其他因素也在阻礙歐洲和巴西的生産。中美貿易談判的重啓是一個積極的進展,意味著中國有機會重新審視對美國豬肉進口的關稅。

 

ASF impacts the global market

非洲豬瘟影響全球市場

 

In Asia, Rabobank estimates China’s current herd loss is 40%, year-on-year, and may expand to over 50% by the end of 2019. However, due to a large slaughter earlier in 2019, it it is expected that the country’s pork production will drop at a slower pace, down 25% for the year with an additional 10 - 15% decline in both herd and pork production in 2020. Meanwhile, ASF is spreading rapidly in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia while new cases were recently detected in North Korea. The report estimates that all Asian pork herds are at risk of ASF within the year. Europe remains challenged by ASF outbreaks but mainly in wild boar. The report adds that disease pressures are expected to affect global animal protein production for more than 5 years, and in the case of China, it may take even longer (Figure 1).

 

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)估計,在亞洲,中國目前的牧群數量同比減少40%,到2019年底可能會擴大到50%以上。然而,由于2019年早些時候的大規模屠宰,預計中國的豬肉産量將以較慢的速度下降,今年將下降25%,到2020年,生豬和豬肉産量將分別下降10 - 15%。與此同時,非洲豬瘟正在越南、老撾和柬埔寨迅速蔓延,而朝鮮最近也發現了新的病例。該報告估計,亞洲所有的豬群在一年內都有感染非瘟的風險。歐洲仍然面臨著非瘟爆發的挑戰,但主要是在野豬身上。該報告補充說,疾病壓力預計將影響全球動物肉類生産5年以上,而就中國而言,時間可能更長(圖1)。

 

圖1 —2018 - 2021年,中國豬肉預計産量

 

Global trade flow

全球貿易流

 

The unprecedented supply loss in China has altered global trade flows, and will continue to do so. China is the world’s largest export destination and in the first 5 months of 2019, EU exports to China were up 41% year-on-year, the bank’s analysts wrote.

 

中國前所未有的供應損失已經改變了全球貿易流動,並將繼續如此。世行分析師寫道,中國是世界上最大的出口目的地,2019年前5個月,歐盟對華出口同比增長41%。

 

Market speculation has contributed to the volatility in international prices and the pressure for further price appreciation will force traditional pork importers such as Mexico, Japan and South Korea to proactively compete for pork supplies, resulting in higher costs.

 

市場投機加劇了國際豬肉價格的波動,進一步漲價的壓力將迫使墨西哥、日本和韓國等傳統豬肉進口國積極爭奪豬肉供應,從而導致成本上升。

 

The Rabobank highlights changes in market access and trade policies as major driving forces that will continue to impact trade flows.

 

荷蘭合作銀行強調,市場准入和貿易政策的變化將是繼續影響貿易流的主要驅動力。

 

ASF causing tight supply in China

非瘟導致中國豬肉供應緊張

 

As ASF contiues to spread in China, prices are starting to rise, indicating tight supply. Since mid-June, live hog prices have increased – 40% higher than in 2018.

 

隨著非瘟在中國的不斷蔓延,豬肉價格開始上漲,表明供應緊張。自6月中旬以來,生豬價格比2018年高出40%。

 

Large inventories of frozen meat continue to pressure prices and weigh on market returns. Pork imports in May increased substantially with more shipments expected in the second half of 2019.

 

大量凍肉庫存繼續對價格構成壓力,並對市場回報構成壓力。5月份豬肉進口大幅增長,預計2019年下半年將有更多豬肉進口。

 

USA expects rise in pork production

預計美國豬肉産量將上升

 

In the USA, a large breeding herd (Figure 2) and improvement in productivity is expected to cause a 5.5% rise in pork production in the second half of 2019, year-on-year. Rabobank added that the resolution of trade terms of Mexico and Canada should boost exports, and the resumption of trade negotiations with China is positive, however, labour shortages remain a key constraint.

 

在美國,因有種豬的規模大(圖2)、生産力提高,預計2019年下半年豬肉産量同比增長5.5%。荷蘭合作銀行補充稱,墨西哥和加拿大貿易條件的解決應會提振出口,恢複與中國的貿易談判是積極因素,但勞動力短缺仍是一個關鍵制約因素。

圖2 —美國種豬規模 2010 - 2019

 

Europe sees better market prices

歐洲豬價將上漲

 

Meanwhile, the spread of ASF in Eastern Europe is discouraging expansion and high temperatures are slowing production growth, contributing to better market prices. Exports have increased from most member states, mainly driven by strong demand from China.

 

與此同時,ASF在東歐的蔓延正在抑制擴張,高溫正在減緩生産增長,這有助于提高市場價格。大多數成員國的出口都有所增長,主要是受中國強勁需求的推動。

 

Brazil: Exports remain high

巴西:出口量仍然很大

 

Demand from China and Russia are driving exports from Brazil and while exports outpace production growth, the report noted that domestic pork prices increase.

 

中國和俄羅斯的需求推動了巴西的豬肉出口,而出口增速超過了生産增速,報告指出,巴西國內豬肉價格正在上漲。

 

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